IPL betting 2018: Using Duckworth Lewis for 1st Inning Totals
ByGeneral— — Posted in
Kolkata are 123 for three after twelve point three overs. So what I’m going to do here is apply the dogwood Lewis calculator. So the URL for this is in the description below the video. So I’m just saying I’m sending a target of 200. That number doesn’t matter and okay, it’s twelve point. Four now so twelve point, four four three three wickets maximum over is twenty.
Since it’s a twenty over match, so just do update and it sets a target of 108 while Kolkata are at 124, so Kolkata are comfortably ahead of reaching the 200 target remembered awkward Lewis is the official it’s the proper method. If the game were to stop due to rain, look, what Louis is used to decide who who would have won doc? What Louis uses hundreds, if not thousands, of historical games to see who would be winning? What is the appropriate? What’S the best fit, so it it?
They’Ve done all the hard work for us, so we can just use this calculator and estimate who is winning. So now I go to the Tibet fair and the betting markets are saying. Oh now, the odds have changed just literally a couple of minutes ago. The odds were two point: five, I use the dr Lewis calculator and I saw that hold on a minute took with those things the Kolkata are comfortably gon na get 200 runs. I think that betting markets are wrong, and so I snapped up these good odds, though perhaps I didn’t their unmatched, they were 2.5, but I do, I think 1.68 is okay. I think that is still attractive.
So, on bat, fair, it’s saying it thinks the Kolkata are gon na get 200. I the odds were far better. They were 2.5 second ago, and I they didn’t match their unfortunately, but we can see that we can compare what the odds are on bet, fair and how they match with what dr Lewis is saying now: it’s not that simple, because dr Lewis was primarily developed for One-Day cricket so like 450 over there are question marks about how well it does when it comes to 20 over and particularly how the IPL is progressing. So does it take into account, you know the power plays and all those things correctly time will tell, but it’s handy to be able to have even even this Duckworth-Lewis calculator, because it does still get a lot of things right.
Time will tell, as I said so, all we can do is try it out and then, if we kind of feel that oh actually it doesn’t seem to be doing that. Well, okay, then we don’t use it that much or then we go I’ll use the Duckworth-Lewis calculator, but when it comes to scores 200, maybe I want to be a bit more cautious. Maybe what I want is to say: oh there’s, a chance that we’ll lose another wicket. So when I’m making my estimate from dr Lewis, maybe I’ll just add an extra wicket lost so that I have a net, you know a little bit of buffer. It’S it’s trial and error.